Abstract

Background
Korea has experienced changes in the balance between the demand for and supply of occupational and environmental medicine (OEM) specialists due to recent policy and environmental shifts. This study projected demand and supply for these specialists for 2025–2035, focusing on those working in special health examination institutions and occupational health management agencies.
Methods
Demand was estimated by applying 2024 average workloads per OEM specialist to projected volumes of special health examinations and outsourced occupational health management for 2025–2035 under four scenarios that varied growth in outsourced management and the share of OEM specialists among participating physicians. Supply was projected using registration and official statistics for 1,010 specialists certified by 2025, combined with detailed residency cohort data, assumptions on future quotas, completion, and age at certification, and age-specific proportions working in the two institution types.
Results
Average workloads in 2024 were 4,793 workers per OEM specialist for special health examinations and 9,193 workers per physician for outsourced occupational health management. The number of OEM specialists younger than 90 years is projected to increase from 968 in 2025 to 1,244 in 2035, with those working in the two institution types increasing from 697 to 910. Depending on the scenario, demand in 2035 ranges from 838 to 943 specialists, with supply exceeding demand in three scenarios but remaining 33 specialists short in the most expansionary scenario.
Conclusions
Short‑term shortages of OEM specialists are likely but remain highly manageable, after which surplus capacity is expected. Policy efforts should therefore stabilize OEM residency pipelines and prepare institutional mechanisms to deploy surplus specialists beyond special health examinations and outsourced occupational health management.

• Keywords: : Occupational Medicine; Health Workforce; Health Services Needs and Demand; Supply and Distribution