Probability of causation (PC) is a reasonable way to estimate causal relationships in radiation-related cancer. This study reviewed the international trend, usage, and critiques of the PC method. Because it has been used in Korea, it is important to check the present status and estimation of PC in radiation-related cancers in Korea.

Research articles and official reports regarding PC of radiation-related cancer and published from the 1980s onwards were reviewed, including studies used for the revision of the Korean PC program. PC has been calculated for compensation-related cases in Korea since 2005.

The United States National Institutes of Health first estimated the PC in 1985. Among the 106 occupational diseases listed in the International Labor Organization Recommendation 194 (International Labor Office (ILO), ILO List of Occupational Diseases, 2010), PC is available only for occupational cancer after ionizing radiation exposure. The United States and United Kingdom use PC as specific criteria for decisions on the compensability of workers’ radiation-related health effects. In Korea, PC was developed firstly as Korean Radiation Risk and Assigned Share (KORRAS) in 1999. In 2015, the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute and Radiation Health Research Institute jointly developed a more revised PC program, Occupational Safety and Health-PC (OSH-PC). Between 2005 and 2015, PC was applied in 16 claims of workers’ compensation for radiation-related cancers. In most of the cases, compensation was given when the PC was more than 50%. However, in one case, lower than 50% PC was accepted considering the possibility of underestimation of the cumulative exposure dose.

PC is one of the most advanced tools for estimating the causation of occupational cancer. PC has been adjusted for baseline cancer incidence in Korean workers, and for uncertainties using a statistical method. Because the fundamental reason for under- or over-estimation is probably inaccurate dose reconstruction, a proper guideline is necessary.